Polls and pundits don’t matter much this early in the game, but the Washington Post keeps tabs on who is most likely to be the Republican nominee for President and they have just released their latest top 10 rankings. See who they have placed in the top 10 and who they think is #1 this week.
- Rep. Paul Ryan (Wis.): Ryan remains on this list because he’s a substantial politician who has been on the national stage. There is very little reason to believe he’ll run for president in 2016, though. This week, Ryan wrote an op-ed arguing that Obamacare is not a law that can be fixed. Oh, and he showed up to the first day of the 114th Congress with a beard, which of course means he definitely will/will not run for president. (Previous ranking: 10)
- Sen. Ted Cruz (Tex.): Take a poll in Iowa today and Cruz is much higher than ninth. So, why do we rank him where we do? Because it remains to be seen whether Cruz can expand beyond his incredibly-loyal-but-not-terribly-large base. And, a related question: Can Cruz raise enough money to capitalize if he does happen to win, place or show in the 2016 Iowa caucuses? (Previous ranking: 8)
- Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee: We’re more convinced than ever that Huck will run for president again. He recently left his Fox News show — he can’t host it and run at the same time — and he’s out with a new book with plenty of red meat for social conservatives. Among the passages in the book is one suggesting Jay-Z is acting as a pimp for his wife, Beyonce. So, there’s that. (Previous ranking: 8)
- Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal: Jindal got solid reviews from Iowa social conservatives during his stop in the Hawkeye State earlier this week. To Jindal allies, that reception is a sign of his ability to appeal to both the religious and business ends of the GOP — a skill, they say, no one else in the field possesses. Maybe. But it remains to be seen whether Jindal will ever get a serious look from primary and caucus voters given how crowded the field is likely to be with bigger names. (Previous ranking: 7)
- Ohio Gov. John Kasich: In a field without Jeb, Kasich would be ranked far higher. But, it’s hard to see how Kasich could raise the money and distinguish himself as the policy guy in a field that also includes Jeb. Plus, we hear Kasich is serious when he says he isn’t much interested in the race. (Previous ranking: 6)
- Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.): Rubio notably went a different direction than his fellow Floridian, Bush, when it comes to gay marriage. But even as Rubio was more critical of the move by a Florida court, his objections were more about process — he said the voters should decide it — than policy. It’s a continual dance that Republicans are going to have to do, now that gay marriage has clear majority support in the United States. (Previous ranking: 4)
- New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie: No one is impacted more negatively by Bush’s aggression than Christie. Christie’s great strength in the 2016 field — aside from his charisma — has always been his relationships with major Republican donors in New York and New Jersey. Bush has many of those same relationships and, post-Bridgegate, is regarded as a safer choice by many of the big money men and women in the GOP. That said, Christie is, without question, the best natural communicator in the field — and that counts for something. (Previous ranking: 2)
- Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker: Another name on this list who is taking steps toward running, Walker has reportedly hired former Republican National Committee political director Rick Wiley to help build a national political operation. That’s significant, and it signals that Walker isn’t totally tired of campaigning after three statewide races in four years. He’s smart to get started early too, there are only so many establishment aides and donors, and Bush has set the tone early. (Previous ranking: 5)
- Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul: Nobody mixes it up like Paul, who in an interview Thursday with Breitbart labeled Bush a “moderate” and pointed to both Bush’s support for Common Core and his decision not to sign the no new tax pledge championed by Grover Norquist. Paul has previously scrapped with Christie over privacy vs. national security and even Rubio on Cuba. Expect more of this in the future. (Previous ranking: 1)
- Former Florida governor Jeb Bush: Money + organization = success. Bush is not a strong frontrunner and, as we’ve detailed in this space, has some major problems with the conservative base. But, his aggressiveness and seeming commitment to running puts him back on top. (Previous ranking: 3)