Plouffe’s Bluff

Obama’s Claim To Be Competitive In Arizona Nothing More Than “Bluffing”

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“Shortly after the 2008 election, Obama adviser David Plouffe predicted at a Harvard conference that Arizona would be ‘a big battleground in 2012 . ‘” (Alexander Burns, “Obama Courts Ariz. Senate Candidate, May Contest State ‘Heavily,'” Politico, 10/6/11)

TEAM OBAMA CLAIMS IT CAN WIN ARIZONA

Obama Campaign Identifies “Expansion Path” Of Winning Arizona To Getting The 270 Electoral Votes He Will Need To Win In November. “ During a briefing for reporters at the DNC yesterday, Obama 2012 campaign manager Jim Messina outlined five paths that would get President Obama to 270 electoral votes. Each starts with Sen. John Kerry’s 2004 map (246 EVs): … Expansion Path: Win Arizona (272 EVs).” (Mike Allen, Politico’s “Playbook,” 12/14/11)

Obama Campaign Manager Jim Messina: “We Can Win Arizona.” “‘You all in here are making calls, talking to voters and doing what you do, because you understand the simple truth, which is we can win Arizona,’ Messina told the troops.” (Dan Nowicki, “Obama Campaign Chief: ‘We Can Win Arizona,” The Arizona Republic’s AZ/DC Blog, 2/12/12)

But Obama’s Approval Rating Is Under 40 Percent And Arizona Isn’t Even In His Swing State Victory Fund

NBC News/Marist Poll: Just 38 Percent Of Arizona Voters Approve Of Obama’s Job Performance, While A Majority Of 51 Percent Disapprove. ( NBC News/Marist Poll , 2487 RV, MoE 2%, 2/19-2/20)

• Gallup: Obama’s 2011 Average Approval Rating In Arizona Was Just 39.7 Percent. (Jeffrey Jones, “Obama Approval Above 50% In 10 States And D.C. In 2011,”Gallup, 1/31/12)

Arizona Is “Notably Absent” From Obama’s Swing State Victory Fund. “The fund raised more than $1.3 million in December, the month it was created, FEC documents show. It dispersed a small fraction of that cash – $5,500 total, in $500 increments – to Democratic Party organizations in 11 states, with much more expected in the months ahead. The targeted states include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin – all won by Obama in 2008 but places aides anticipate will be hotly contested in 2012. Notably absent from the list are New Mexico and Arizona, which Obama strategists have said would be potential keys to victory in November and the focus of a robust organizing effort.” (Devin Dwyer, “Obama Swing State Fund Taps Wealthy To Aid Key States,”ABC News’ Political Punch, 2/3/12)

The Washington Post’s Ruth Marcus: Obama Campaign Claims To Be Competitive In Arizona “Bravado.” “There is, no doubt, an element of shake-up-the-other-side bravado in the Obama campaign’s advertised interest in Arizona.” (Ruth Marcus, Op-Ed, “A Purple Dawn In Arizona?” The Washington Post, 1/25/12)

National Journal : The Obama Campaign “Has Been Doing A Lot Of Bluffing” On Swing States The President Will Compete In To Win, Including “Arguing It Has An Outside Shot At Contesting Arizona.” “President Obama’s reelection team has spun multiple pathways to an electoral vote majority, but a glance at his state-by-state approval ratings throughout 2011 suggests the campaign has been doing a lot of bluffing. … The Obama campaign has been arguing it has an outside shot at contesting Arizona, but his approval rating is at 40 percent, with 52 percent disapproving.” (Josh Kraushaar, “Obama Struggling In Battleground States,” National Journal, 1/31/12)

Obama Winning Arizona “A Desert Mirage” (Alex Roarty, “A Desert Mirage,” National Journal, 2/24/12)

Ruy Teixeira, Demographic Expert At The Liberal Center For American Progress: There “Just Isn’t The Right Formula Right Now” For Obama To Win Arizona. “Obama can count on the Grand Canyon State’s demographics moving in his favor, but it won’t be enough, according to Ruy Teixeira, a demographic expert at the liberal Center for American Progress. ‘The nature of the white population there and the level of minority vote just isn’t the right formula right now,’ he said. Teixeira, who coauthored a paper with John Halpin last year that assessed how demographic changes would benefit Obama in 2012, said that Arizona was in a class with other fringe states-such as Georgia, Indiana, and Missouri-that the president can hope to win only if he steamrolls the GOP nominee.” (Alex Roarty, “A Desert Mirage,” National Journal , 2/24/12)

OBAMA’S POLICIES HAVE FAILED ARIZONA

Obama’s Economic Policies Have Failed To Create Jobs In Arizona

Since Obama Took Office, Arizona Has Lost 105,500 Jobs And The Unemployment Rate Has Increased From 8.2 Percent To 8.7 Percent. (Bureau of Labor Statistics, Accessed 1/24/12)

Since 2008, Arizona’s Median Income Has Fallen $4,169. (“Median Household Income By State: 1984 To 2010,” U.S. Census Bureau, Accessed 10/17/11)

Obama’s Failed Energy Agenda Has Doubled Gas Prices

Since January 17, 2009, Three Days Before Obama’s Inauguration, The Average Price For A Gallon Of Regular Gas In Arizona Has More Than Doubled, Increasing 106%.(“News & Notes,” Arizona Daily Star, 1/17/09; AAA Fuel Gauge Report, Accessed 2/22/12)

• THEN: On January 17, 2009, The Average Price For A Gallon Of Regular Gas In Arizona Was $1.79. “The statewide price of a gallon of regular gasoline is $1.79 … AAA Arizona said.” (“News & Notes,” Arizona Daily Star, 1/17/09)
• NOW: The Average Price For Gallon Of Regular Gas In Arizona Is $3.684. (AAA Fuel Gauge Report, Accessed 2/27/12)

Obama Broke His Promise To Help Arizona Homeowners

PROMISE: In Mesa, AZ President Obama Promised That His Housing Program Would Prevent 7 To 9 Million Families From Foreclosure. OBAMA: “And we will pursue the housing plan I’m outlining today. And through this plan, we will help between 7 and 9 million families restructure or refinance their mortgages so they can afford-avoid foreclosure.” (President Barack Obama, Remarks On The Home Mortgage Crisis, Mesa, AZ, 2/18/09)

• BROKEN : Obama Has Helped Only 1.7 Million Avoid Foreclosure Of The 9 Million Homeowners He Promised. “President Obama pledged at the beginning of his term to boost the nation’s crippled housing market and help as many as 9 million homeowners avoid losing their homes to foreclosure. Nearly three years later, it hasn’t worked out. Obama has spent just $2.4 billion of the $50 billion he promised. The initiatives he announced have helped 1.7 million people.” (Zachary A. Goldfarb, “Obama’s Efforts To Aid Homeowners, Boost Housing Market Fall Far Short Of Goals,”The Washington Post , 10/23/11)

“Arizona Registered The Nation’s Second Highest State Foreclosure Rate For The Third Year In A Row…” “Arizona registered the nation’s second highest state foreclosure rate for the third year in a row, with 4.14 percent of its housing units (One In 24) with at least one foreclosure filing in 2011.” (RealtyTrac, “2011 Year-End Foreclosure Market Report: Foreclosures On The Retreat,” Press Release, 1/12/12)

• Phoenix And Prescott, AZ Both Rank In The Top 20 Of Metropolitan Area Foreclosure Rates. (RealtyTrac, “2011 Year-End Foreclosure Market Report: Foreclosures On The Retreat,” Press Release, 1/12/12)

“In The Phoenix Area … Almost Half Of All Homeowners Owe More Than Their Homes Are Worth.” (Catherine Reagor, “Obama Unveils Plan On Housing,” The Arizona Republic , 2/1/12)

• According To The Case-Shiller Index, Phoenix Home Prices Are Expected To Fall Another 10 Percent In 2012. “Home prices will continue to fall in the Phoenix metro area, according to the most recent Fiserve Case-Shiller survey, which uses data collected from the Federal Housing Finance. By the third quarter of 2012, prices are expected to drop another 9.6 percent. By the third quarter of 2013, expect a further decline of 3.4 percent.” (Jan Buchholz, “Phoenix Home Values Expected To Fall Another 10%,” Phoenix Business Journal, 1/30/12)

ObamaCare Spiking Arizona Health Care Costs, Rejected By Voters

Last Year, Arizona Voters Supported A Ballot Initiative That Rejected ObamaCare.“Oklahoma approved an opt-out ballot initiative by a 2-to-1 margin. Proposition 106 in Arizona gained 55 percent of the vote… (Sarah Kliff, “Arizona And Oklahoma Vote To Reject Insurance Mandate,” Politico, 11/3/10)

Arizona State Employees Told To Expect To See Health-Insurance Costs To Rise As Much As 37 Percent. “State and university employees with families can expect to see their monthly health-insurance costs rise as much as 37 percent next year, depending on the type of plan they choose. Figures provided by the Arizona Department of Administration show that health plans for families and single adults with children will shoulder the most-expensive premium increases beginning Jan. 1, while individuals will pay modest increases.” (Kent Alltucker, “State Tells Employees Health Insurance Will Rocket,” The Arizona Republic , 7/21/11)

• Arizona Department Of Administration Blames ObamaCare For Increases. “Alan Ecker, Department of Administration spokesman, said health reform ‘is responsible for all increases for employee premiums’ next year.” (Kent Alltucker, “State Tells Employees Health Insurance Will Rocket,” The Arizona Republic , 7/21/11)

Obama Regulations And Taxes Harming Arizona’s Mining Industry

“Arizona’s Mining Industry Supports Over 50,000 High-Paying Jobs Statewide Making The Mining Industry The Largest Overall Employer In The State.” (National Mining Association, Accessed 2/23/12)

Obama Proposes A “Dirt Tax” And Hardrock Mineral Fee On Mining Industry. “A royalty on hardrock minerals and a ‘dirt tax’ on mining are in President Barack Obama’s proposed budget again this year, after failing to go anywhere last year.” (Adella Harding, “Obama Budget Eyes Mining, Grazing, Tourism,” Elko Daily Free Press, 2/18/12)

• The Hardrock Mining Royalty Would Raise Taxes On The Mining Industry By $1.8 Billion Over The Next Ten Years. (Office Of Management And Budget, “Federal Receipts,”The White House, 2/13/12)

The Obama Administration Imposed A 20-Year Ban On Mining On One Million Acres Near The Grand Canyon That Will Cost $160 Million In Average Annual Economic Output. “Only last week Interior Secretary Ken Salazar announced that he is banning new uranium mining on one million acres of federal land in northern Arizona. The 20-year withdrawal of these lands from ‘mineral entry’ blocks access to hundreds of millions of pounds of the highest-grade uranium ore to be found in the country. … The land bureau’s impact statement estimates that Mr. Salazar’s withdrawal will cost the region $160 million in average annual economic output-no small change over 20 years.” (Editorial, “Heavy Metal Politics,” The Wall Street Journal, 1/20/12)

The Obama Administration Has Refused To Grant A Permit For The Construction Of The Rosemont Mine That Would Create 2,000 Jobs And Increase Personal Income By $3 Billion. “The EPA says it’s not ready to recommend approval of a federal permit for the proposed Rosemont Mine under the Clean Water Act, and that it has major concerns that could further delay the project. … The proposed Rosemont copper mine to be developed south of Tucson will provide many benefits to the area. According to studies, the mine will produce over 400 direct jobs and about 1,600 indirect jobs that will provide about $3 billion in increased personal income over the next 20 years. The mine will provide local governments with tax revenues of about $19 million per year and create $700 million in local economic stimulus in such things as services, real estate, retail purchases, utilities and manufacturing.” (Jonathan DuHamel, “Rosemont Copper Mine Would Benefit Economy And Community But Is Buried In Bureaucracy,” Tucson Citizen , 4/14/11)